Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
