Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
